Policy Brief
The anticipated withdrawal of Ethiopian peacekeeping troops from Somalia, set for December 31, 2024, presents significant security challenges. Ethiopian troops have been a stabilizing force in conflict-prone regions such as Bay, Bakool, and Gedo. This policy paper explores the implications of the withdrawal, highlights community concerns, and provides actionable recommendations to mitigate potential instability, focusing on Southwest State and Gedo region of Jubaland.
Introduction
The Ethiopian peacekeeping mission in Somalia began in 2007 at the invitation of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Operating under the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and bilateral agreements, Ethiopian forces have been critical to maintaining security, particularly in Southwest State and Gedo region of jubaland state.
However, tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have escalated following Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, which Somalia perceives as a threat to its sovereignty. This deterioration in relations led the Somali Federal Government to request the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops by the end of their ATMIS mandate in December 2024.
This paper, based on research conducted by the Hangool Institute, examines the implications of this withdrawal on the security and stability of Southwest State, with recommendations for mitigating risks.
Key Findings
Here is a bar chart illustrating the perception of respondents regarding the presence of Ethiopian troops:
• Positive responses dominate with 17.
• Negative responses are significantly lower at 3.
• Neutral responses are absent (0).
This highlights a predominantly favorable view of the troops’ presence.
The chart above shows the distribution of responses regarding the security situation in districts due to the presence of Ethiopian troops:
• Secure is the most selected rating, with 8 responses.
• Very Secure and Insecure each received 6 responses, indicating a mixed perception of safety.
• No respondents rated the security situation as Very Insecure.
This data suggests that while a portion of the population feels secure, significant concerns about insecurity persist.
The pie chart above illustrates the duration Ethiopian troops have been stationed in districts:
• Over 5 years accounts for the largest segment (80%), indicating the majority of respondents believe the troops have been stationed for an extended period.
• 3-5 years represents 20%, reflecting a smaller but notable duration.
• 1-3 years and Don’t know responses are absent (0%).
This visualization underscores the longstanding presence of Ethiopian troops in the districts surveyed.
The bar chart above visualizes the responses regarding the perceived mandate of Ethiopian peacekeeping troops:
• “To assist in fighting Al-Shabaab” received the highest acknowledgment, with 15 responses (75%).
• “To provide security & peacekeeping” accounted for 5 responses (25%).
• “To train Somali forces” and “To support the Somali government” received no responses (0%).
This analysis indicates that most respondents associate Ethiopian troops with combating Al-Shabaab, while a smaller group recognizes their role in general peacekeeping efforts.
The pie chart illustrates perceptions of Ethiopian troops’ role in contributing to peace and security in the region:
• Yes (80%): A significant majority of respondents believe that Ethiopian troops have positively impacted peace and security.
• No (20%): A minority expressed skepticism about their contribution.
This analysis highlights the broad acknowledgment of the Ethiopian troops’ role in stabilizing the region, despite some dissenting opinions.
The bar chart provides a clear visualization of whether Ethiopian troop commanders conveyed messages about their withdrawal:
• “No” (15 responses, 75%): The majority of respondents reported not receiving any communication regarding the withdrawal.
• “Yes” (5 responses, 25%): Only a small portion of respondents indicated they were informed.
This analysis underscores a communication gap between Ethiopian troop commanders and the local population, which could lead to uncertainty and concerns in the affected regions.
The pie chart illustrates awareness of the reasons behind the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia:
• Yes (80%): A significant majority of respondents are aware of the reasons for the withdrawal.
• No (20%): A smaller proportion remains unaware.
This analysis shows a high level of awareness among the population, indicating effective dissemination of information regarding the troop withdrawal in most areas.
The bar chart illustrates respondents’ beliefs about the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops on the announced date:
• “Yes” (13 responses, 65%): A majority believe the troops will withdraw as scheduled.
• “No” (7 responses, 35%): A notable minority express skepticism about the announced date.
This analysis indicates a general confidence in the announced timeline, although a significant portion of the population harbors doubts, reflecting mixed perceptions of the situation.
The pie chart illustrates the fears of the population regarding potential targeting by Al-Shabaab after the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• Yes (70%): A significant majority of respondents fear that the population may be targeted by Al-Shabaab following the withdrawal.
• No (30%): A smaller portion does not share this concern.
This analysis highlights widespread apprehension about the security vacuum potentially left by the Ethiopian troops, emphasizing the need for robust contingency measures to protect the population
The pie chart presents perceptions regarding the potential for a security crisis following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• Yes (90%): An overwhelming majority of respondents believe that the withdrawal will lead to a security crisis, potentially allowing Al-Shabaab to take over districts.
• No (10%): Only a small minority disagrees with this concern.
This analysis highlights widespread fears of instability and the urgent need for strategic measures to prevent security vacuums and district takeovers post-withdrawal.
The bar chart illustrates the presence of contingency or preparedness plans in the community in the event of Ethiopian troops’ withdrawal:
• Yes (0%): No respondents indicated the existence of a contingency plan.
• No (100%): All respondents stated that no preparedness plan is in place.
This analysis underscores a critical gap in readiness within the community, highlighting an urgent need for strategic planning to address potential security challenges following the troop withdrawal.
The pie chart illustrates respondents’ plans regarding remaining in their district after the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• No (85%): The majority of respondents plan to leave their district, indicating significant insecurity or uncertainty.
• Yes (15%): Only a small proportion plan to stay.
This analysis highlights widespread concerns about security or stability, driving most individuals to consider relocating after the withdrawal. This emphasizes the need for enhanced local security measures and support to prevent mass displacement.
The bar chart illustrates respondents’ intended relocation destinations after the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• To a neighboring country (75%): The majority plan to leave Somalia entirely, seeking safety in a neighboring country.
• To a major city (25%): A smaller group intends to move to urban centers like Mogadishu.
• Another district within the region (0%): No respondents expressed plans to relocate within their current region.
This analysis reflects significant concerns about local and regional security, with most individuals opting for international relocation as a means of ensuring safety and stability.
The bar chart highlights the communication efforts of local authorities regarding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• Yes (0%): No respondents reported being informed by local authorities about the planned withdrawal.
• No (100%): All respondents indicated that they received no information from local authorities.
This analysis underscores a critical communication gap, suggesting a lack of proactive engagement from local authorities in preparing communities for the withdrawal. This absence of communication could exacerbate uncertainty and insecurity among residents. It emphasizes the urgent need for improved information dissemination and community engagement to address potential concerns effectively.
The pie chart illustrates community perceptions of Somali soldiers’ ability to fill the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
• Yes (15%): A small minority of respondents believe that Somali soldiers are capable of maintaining security in the district post-withdrawal.
• No (85%): The overwhelming majority express a lack of confidence in Somali soldiers’ readiness to handle the security responsibilities.
This analysis reveals significant skepticism regarding the preparedness of Somali forces, highlighting the need for enhanced training, resources, and strategic planning to address security challenges in the wake of the Ethiopian troops’ departure.
NON ATMIS ETHIOPIAN TROOPS IN GEDO REGION OF JUBALAND
The presence of non-ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) Ethiopian troops in the Gedo region, specifically in the districts of Dolow and Luuq, is focused on managing security in these strategic areas. These Ethiopian forces are tasked with securing the safety of the Ethiopia-Somalia border, which has been increasingly threatened by the militant group Al-Shabaab.
Ethiopian troops have long been involved in security operations in Somalia, particularly in the border areas where Al-Shabaab has a presence. The militant group has been actively operating along the border, making cross-border incursions and posing a significant security threat to both Somalia and Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian government’s justification for deploying these troops is centered around preventing Al-Shabaab from further destabilizing the region and ensuring the safety of the border, which is crucial for Ethiopia’s national security.
The Ethiopian forces are justifying their presence in the region as part of broader regional security efforts to curb the threat posed by Al-Shabaab, particularly in the Gedo area, which is a strategic region for both Somalia and Ethiopia.
In conclusion, while the possibility of a withdrawal remains, it is not immediately likely unless the security situation significantly improves or international agreements support such a move. The decision will depend on a variety of factors, including the ongoing threat from Al-Shabaab and regional security considerations.
Analysis of Additional Thoughts and Concerns
The qualitative feedback provided by respondents offers critical insights into community perspectives and concerns surrounding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops:
1. Request for Replacement Troops:
- A respondent emphasized the importance of the African Union stepping in to deploy replacement troops, particularly in Bay and Bakool regions of southwest state and Gedo region of jubaland State.
- Implication: This indicates a fear of displacement due to the potential security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces. It highlights the community’s reliance on external forces for stability.
2. Concerns About Deteriorating Security:
- Another respondent predicted worsening security conditions, particularly in Southwest State, following the troop withdrawal.
- Implication: This reflects a lack of confidence in local security structures to maintain order, with specific concern about increased vulnerability to threats like Al-Shabaab.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
1. Strengthening Local Security Forces
- Capacity Building: Provide targeted training, resources, and logistical support to Somali National Army (SNA) units operating in Southwest State.
- Community Policing: Implement community-led security initiatives to bolster local confidence and involvement in maintaining order.
2. Regional and International Coordination
- ATMIS Engagement: Request additional troop contributions from other ATMIS member states to fill the operational gap.
- African Union Support: Advocate for African Union-led contingency measures to ensure stability during the transition.
3. Contingency Planning
- Emergency Preparedness: Develop district-level security and humanitarian response plans to address potential displacement and unrest.
- Rapid Response Units: Establish mobile units capable of addressing emerging threats in vulnerable areas.
4. Enhancing Communication and Awareness
- Public Engagement: Facilitate transparent communication between local authorities, communities, and international stakeholders regarding the withdrawal timeline and security measures.
- Educational Campaigns: Inform communities about contingency plans and encourage collaboration in security initiatives.
5. Diplomatic Efforts
- Ethiopia-Somalia Dialogue: Pursue mediated discussions to address bilateral tensions and explore alternative frameworks for Ethiopian contributions to Somali security.
- International Mediation: Engage regional organizations like IGAD and international partners to de-escalate tensions and ensure collaborative peace efforts.
Conclusion
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops presents a significant challenge for Somalia, particularly in Southwest State, where security and stability have long depended on their presence. Proactive measures, including strengthening Somali forces, enhancing international collaboration, and addressing community concerns, are critical to mitigating the risks of this transition.
By prioritizing these actions, Somalia can navigate this transition effectively, safeguard its sovereignty, and work towards sustainable peace and security.
The withdrawal creates risk increased Activities by Al-Shabaab threatened the safety of critical infrastructure such as airports and government installation as well as humanitarian aid access to these areas will be impacted unless government of Somalia as strong alternative substitute for Ethiopians troops.
Anticipated Withdrawal of Ethiopian Peacekeeping Troops from Somalia [PDF]
